Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.868326e-05 0.000082 0.000097 0.000114 0.000132 0.000153 0.000176
2025-02-16 5.493913e-05 0.000073 0.000094 0.000119 0.000149 0.000183 0.000223
2025-02-23 4.525054e-05 0.000065 0.000089 0.000119 0.000156 0.000199 0.000251
2025-03-02 3.547723e-05 0.000056 0.000081 0.000115 0.000158 0.000209 0.000273
2025-03-09 2.886839e-05 0.000049 0.000076 0.000113 0.000160 0.000218 0.000292
2025-03-16 2.418843e-05 0.000044 0.000072 0.000112 0.000165 0.000231 0.000316
2025-03-23 2.083709e-05 0.000041 0.000070 0.000113 0.000171 0.000244 0.000341
2025-03-30 1.746811e-05 0.000037 0.000067 0.000112 0.000174 0.000254 0.000362
2025-04-06 1.419842e-05 0.000033 0.000063 0.000109 0.000175 0.000260 0.000377
2025-04-13 1.246579e-05 0.000031 0.000062 0.000111 0.000181 0.000274 0.000402
2025-04-20 9.742703e-06 0.000027 0.000057 0.000106 0.000179 0.000276 0.000412
2025-04-27 8.223184e-06 0.000025 0.000055 0.000106 0.000182 0.000286 0.000432
2025-05-04 6.573728e-06 0.000022 0.000052 0.000105 0.000185 0.000296 0.000453
2025-05-11 5.878500e-06 0.000022 0.000053 0.000109 0.000196 0.000317 0.000490
2025-05-18 4.900255e-06 0.000020 0.000052 0.000110 0.000201 0.000331 0.000518
2025-05-25 3.539445e-06 0.000017 0.000048 0.000105 0.000199 0.000333 0.000530
2025-06-01 2.656864e-06 0.000015 0.000045 0.000103 0.000200 0.000340 0.000547
2025-06-08 2.057601e-06 0.000014 0.000043 0.000103 0.000203 0.000350 0.000569
2025-06-15 1.659037e-06 0.000013 0.000042 0.000103 0.000208 0.000364 0.000597
2025-06-22 1.230815e-06 0.000011 0.000041 0.000102 0.000210 0.000372 0.000617
2025-06-29 8.308704e-07 0.000010 0.000038 0.000100 0.000209 0.000377 0.000631
2025-07-06 6.579552e-07 0.000009 0.000038 0.000101 0.000216 0.000391 0.000660
2025-07-13 3.765087e-07 0.000008 0.000034 0.000097 0.000212 0.000391 0.000668